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Crypto it set to have a positive, but volatile, 2025
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With the inauguration of President Trump occurring on January 20th the discussions around how the second Trump administration will effect the crypto sector as well as other emerging sectors such as the burgeoning AI space continue to dominate business headlines. In the aftermath of the crypto ball that was organized by David Sacks, and the label of the first crypto President being assigned to Trump the expectations for proactive and forward looking action are quite high. Over the coming days as the Trump team fully moves into roles, confirmation hearings continue, and changes at regulatory agencies are finalized, there are several actions that the market seems to expect to occur via executive order.
These include, but are not limited to executive orders addressing Operation Chokepoint 2.0 (the debanking of the crypto industry), the repealing of SAB 121 which would open the doors for banking institutions to hold crypto with less complexity and financial statement effect, and the establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve using bitcoin that had been seized via U.S. government efforts. All of these potential actions have received substantial conversation and debate in U.S. policy circles over the last six (6) months, with Congress actually voting on a bipartisan basis to repeal SAB 121.
Despite the positive momentum and market sentiment, let’s take a look at why 2025 might be more volatile than some investors and policy advocates are expecting.
Executive Orders Versus Congress
The expectations for the Trump Administration to enact significant changes to crypto policy, accounting, and reporting via executive order have continued to escalate following election day. As mentioned above the market is expecting the newly installed Trump team to take swift, sweeping, and pro-crypto actions within the first few days in office. While these issues and measures are of high importance for the crypto lobby, there are any number of bigger picture issues that the administration will need to focus on, all of which have powerful lobbies and advocates pushing for attention.
In addition, and even admitting that crypto donations and education have been allocated to both sides of the political spectrum, the reality is that politization of virtually every topic and issue has continued to accelerate. It seems unlikely that executive orders undertaken by the Trump administration will remain unexamined or unchallenged; it is important to remember that Congress and the courts can challenge and ever overturn executive orders in certain situations.
