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The January Tweet No One Took Seriously
Back in January, few investors were worried about a downturn in the financial markets. Bitcoin had recently surged past the $100,000 milestone, the stock market was breaking records, and optimism was high among traders and analysts alike. Amid this enthusiasm, a cryptocurrency influencer named Carl Runefelt, known online as “Carl Moon” issued a tweet that hardly anyone took seriously at the time. It appeared overly cautious compared to the widespread market excitement.
On January 18, Runefelt tweeted, “Debts are rising alongside greed and euphoria in the stock market. The signs of a financial crisis are growing. I believe we will see a big financial meltdown… Bitcoin is the Noah’s Ark in the economic flood that is coming. Get in the boat.”
From Caution to Crash: A Sudden Market Turn
At the time, his warning was largely ignored. Investors dismissed it as overly pessimistic and out of touch with the prevailing bullish sentiment. However, three months later, Runefelt’s tweet now seems remarkably prescient.
In recent days, the financial markets have experienced significant turmoil. The S&P 500 fell roughly 14 percent within a few trading sessions, marking one of its sharpest declines since the 1987 market crash. Cryptocurrencies have not fared any better. Bitcoin has lost around 25 percent from its recent peak, currently trading near $76,000. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, have also suffered notable losses. This sudden downturn has investors revisiting Runefelt’s prediction and questioning how he accurately anticipated this situation.
Understanding the Warning: Runefelt’s Reasoning
Runefelt recently clarified his reasoning in another tweet, pointing to the “federal funds effective rate” as the main indicator behind his January forecast. The federal funds rate is a critical benchmark interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, often influencing broader economic conditions. Runefelt explained, “One of the main indicators I look at when I predict this coming stock market crash and recession is the federal funds rate. Over the past decades, when they start lowering the rate, a stock market crash and recession usually follow.”
A Pattern in the Numbers: Debt, Defaults, and Declines
He highlighted a historical pattern: when the Fed moves from raising interest rates to cutting them, economic instability typically follows. This pattern was visible in major downturns, including the recessions in 2000 and 2008. In addition to the interest rate signals, Runefelt also identified rising levels of consumer debt and climbing credit card defaults as indicators of underlying financial stress.
Concern Spreads Among Financial Professionals
Runefelt isn’t alone in raising concerns about these economic conditions. Several financial experts have pointed to troubling signs in recent months, especially the increasing amount of consumer debt. Reports indicate that U.S. consumer debt levels hit record highs in early 2025, accompanied by rising credit card delinquency rates. Historically, when consumer debt and payment difficulties rise together, broader economic problems often follow.
The Role of Sentiment: Euphoria Before the Fall
Moreover, periods of extreme market optimism and investor confidence are frequently associated with financial bubbles. Runefelt’s reference to growing “greed and euphoria” echoes warnings that seasoned investors frequently issue before market downturns.
Bitcoin as the Ark: Runefelt’s Crypto Thesis
Despite the current downturn, Runefelt remains confident about Bitcoin’s long-term value. He continues to advocate for the cryptocurrency through his popular YouTube channel, “The Moon Show”, often describing Bitcoin as a form of “digital gold” that can help investors preserve their wealth during economic crises. According to Runefelt, Bitcoin’s fixed supply protects it from inflation and devaluation, especially in scenarios where governments print large amounts of money to manage economic downturns.
Even amidst the market decline, Runefelt holds to his bullish predictions for Bitcoin. He recently reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 later this year, with an eventual long-term target as high as $1 million if the Federal Reserve returns to aggressive monetary easing.
From Supermarket Employee to Market Strategist
Runefelt’s own journey to prominence differs significantly from traditional financial analysts. Before becoming widely known online, he worked in a supermarket in Sweden. His approachable style and ability to simplify complex economic concepts have allowed him to build a substantial online following across multiple social media platforms.
Macro Focus Over Hype: What Sets Runefelt Apart
Unlike many influencers who concentrate on quick trading strategies or short-term market movements, Runefelt emphasizes macroeconomic trends such as monetary policy, global debt levels, and interest rate cycles. His analysis often focuses on how these broader economic signals impact the long-term outlook for markets and cryptocurrencies.
A Wake-Up Call for Investors
This recent market downturn has forced investors to reconsider strategies and pay closer attention to economic fundamentals. Runefelt’s accurate prediction from January serves as a timely reminder that effective investing involves more than following popular sentiment. Investors who overlooked early warning signs are now reevaluating their decisions, recognizing the importance of historical patterns and careful analysis in anticipating market shifts.
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