In this news:
FedEx (NYSE:FDX) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, March 20, 2025. Analysts predict the parcel delivery company will report earnings of $4.63 per share, a rise from $3.86 in the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to reach $21.89 billion, a modest 1% increase. However, the company faces headwinds from reduced consumer demand and industrial slowdown.
FDX has $59 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $87 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.9 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.9 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative - having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
FedEx's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
Median of the 10 positive returns = 6.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns =-4.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
FDX observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
FDX Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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