Quantum Leap Or False Alarm? Bitcoin’s Fate In The Quantum Age

Majorana 1, the first quantum chip powered by a Topological Core based on a revolutionary new class ... [+] of materials developed by Microsoft. Photos by John Brecher for Microsoft.
John Brecher
In a previous article I wrote only about two months ago, I took a hard look at the looming threat quantum computing poses to bitcoin and cryptography at large. The conclusion then was cautious. Although quantum algorithms can theoretically crack the elliptic-curve and RSA cryptography that secures everything from bitcoin wallets to bank logins, the hardware needed was still far beyond what exists.
Any quantum computer capable of breaking bitcoin’s elliptic curve (ECDSA) or even undermining SHA-256 hashing was presumed to be at least a decade away. Modern quantum processors can incorporate few hundred qubits, falling far short of that mark.
One estimate from a 2022 study suggested that breaking bitcoin’s 256-bit elliptic curve within a practical timeframe would require roughly 2,800 perfect logical qubits, which in practice means on the order of millions of physical qubits once error-correction overhead is included​.
Another analysis concluded that bitcoin’s cryptography remains secure until we see quantum machines ten thousand times more powerful than today’s quantum computers.
Until now, the consensus has been that the sky isn’t falling yet, but we should keep an eye on quantum progress. Enter a quantum computing breakthrough: Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip.