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It’s an oft-debated topic, as Bitcoin skates with its all-time highs despite recent falls, and gold is at its all-time high denominated in US dollars. Which asset will perform better in a time of inflation and geopolitical instability? Which asset will do well if there's a recession? Will gold outshine Bitcoin in the long term - or the reverse?
Both gold and Bitcoin are hard money
Both of them seem poised to do well on the inflation front since they're meant to address the continual inflation of the money supply and what some term "money printing." As money supply increases, the amount of fiat currency in circulation also increases - ultimately, this is the long-term decision-maker for inflation, which is a general increase in prices - or, flipped another way, the gradual loss of purchasing power for fiat money. Gold is a scarce commodity that tends to increase in value with geopolitical trouble. Historically, it was the backer of fiat currencies until the United States turned away from the gold standard system in 1971 in favor of the current system of unrestrained fiat currencies.
However, in the case of a recession, the short-term volatility associated with Bitcoin will likely mean downward price pressure - as it's seen as a risk-on asset that trades more suddenly in a 24/7 market that is open while other markets remain closed - and gold may gain value due to a combination of governments using it to hedge from US dollar dominance and the effect of tariffs.
Paper gold and paper Bitcoin
Gold has industrial uses "backdropping" its price. However, Bitcoin has two things going for it that are unique advantages: its ability to be used as a medium of exchange, though not fully realized now - the experience is already superior to lugging gold bars or coins around, and its integration with the Internet and AI through the L402 payment protocol and Lightning Network. As the Internet becomes more equipped with capabilities, Bitcoin, as the world's preeminent digital currency, will stand to benefit.
Bitcoin is also designed to be energy invariant - meaning that it scales with the amount of computing power and energy. In theory, gold doesn't display this same property. For example, if humanity harnesses enough energy to seriously asteroid mine, the amount of gold available would quickly dampen its price while Bitcoin's mining difficulty adjustment already bakes in a way to adjust the cost of issuing a Bitcoin with the amount of energy directed to the network.
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